How exit polls are prepared?: Where do survey agencies get win-loss figures?

How exit polls are prepared?: Where do survey agencies get win-loss figures? | Two separate phases of voting were held in the Gujarat Assembly elections. The percentage of voting this time has been less as compared to the last election. The official results of the Gujarat assembly elections will be out on December 8, but the exit polls of many survey agencies are predicting the BJP to form the government again. Then many people would be asking the question that how the exit poll figures are determined?, What are the words discussed during the election, opinion poll, pre-poll, post poll? And what is the math behind doing different types of such surveys?, so here are the answers to all the questions.

 

What is an exit poll?

Be it assembly or Lok Sabha elections, the most talked about word is exit poll. An exit poll is when people from various polling agencies stand outside the polling center on the day of polling. Any voter who returns after voting is asked some questions like Who did you vote for?, Which issue did you vote for?, How many voters are there in the family?, Why did you not like a candidate? etc. An exit poll is a statistical analysis of the answers to all such questions asked to voters.

The Role of Samples in Exile Polls

The most important role in an exit poll is the sample taken. Sample means how many people were asked questions by the survey agency. The greater the number of samples, the more accurate the exit poll is supposed to be. Various survey agencies also conduct exit polls through phone or message. When the exit poll is published, it is also necessary to state how many samples the exit poll was prepared on. If the survey agency takes small-scale samples from different constituencies, it can also affect the overall results of the survey. This is the reason why exit polls are not fully trusted by many people.

2. Pre-poll

The survey takes place in the period from the announcement of elections to one day before polling, as Gujarat Assembly elections were announced on 3 November and the first phase of polling was held on 1 December. The survey conducted on voters in different constituencies of Gujarat between these two dates is called pre-poll.

3. Post Pol

The survey takes place after the completion of polling, i.e. the second phase of polling in Gujarat concluded on December 5. After that the opinion of the people of different areas should be taken. In this type of survey, people are asked some in-depth questions, because the main objective of conducting a post poll survey is not to know which seat will be won or lost, but to collect information about which issue or prospects people voted for. Pre-poll and post poll are also commonly known as opinion polls.

Exit Poll Guidelines

The Central Election Commission first set guidelines for exit polls in 1998. The Election Commission, under Article 324, banned the publication of the results of exit polls and opinion polls on television and newspapers from 5 pm on 14 February 1998 to 5 pm on 7 March 1998. In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the first phase of polling was on 16 February and the last phase of polling was on 7 March, so if the exit polls of the previous phase were released during this period, the voters of the remaining constituencies could be affected by it. From then till now, the Election Commission has been issuing guidelines regarding exit polls and opinion polls from time to time.

According to the Representation of the People Act 1951, exit polls cannot be shown until all phases of voting have been completed. The results of the exit polls can be released in the media only half an hour after the completion of the last phase of voting. Anyone who violates this rule can be imprisoned for two years or fined or both.

History of Exit Polls in India

Election surveys and exit polls started in the 1980s in our country. Then such surveys were published in magazines. In the Lok Sabha elections of 1996, exit polls were shown on Doordarshan for the first time, the survey statistics were correct, due to which people's curiosity about exit polls started to increase.

 

How exit polls are prepared?: Where do survey agencies get win-loss figures?